Modeling of Spatio-temporal changes of Urban Sprawl in Jeju-island: Using CA (Cellular Automata) and ARD (Automatic Rule Detection)
Abstract
This study aims to predict the spatio-temporal change of the urban sprawl in Jeju isalnd. This study consists of three stages. First, we construct 2009 and 2019 social-environment data for 2009 and 2019, which are the basis for the sprawl prediction. Second, the Neighborhood test model (ARD) is used to select a suitable Neighborhood. Using the selected Neighborhood and 2009 predictor variables, we predict 2019 and 2029 landcover map. Third, after measuring and classifying the sprawl between 2009 to 2019 and 2019 to 2029, the spatiotemporal changes are analyzed. The result show that, Leapfrog and Edge-expansion appeared noticeably due to large-scale development between 2009 and 2019, and in contrast to this, there are more Infilling in 2029. This study is meaningful in that it can be used as a new basic data for preventing ineffective development and efficient management of the land by predicting spatio-temporal changes of urban sprawl and analyze by type using the Cellular Automata (CA) based SIMLANDER model for the first time in Korea.
